The influx of aging Baby Boomers into the ranks of the retired will reduce the ratio of workers available to pay for each Medicare part A beneficiary by 40% from 2000 to 2030, according to the 2016 report of the Medicare Trustees.
In 2015, there were 3.1 workers for each part A beneficiary, putting the United States in the middle of a projected drop from 4.0 workers per beneficiary in 2000 down to 2.4 in 2030. The Boomer-induced drop will largely be over by then, but the decline will continue until there are about 2.1 workers for each part A beneficiary by 2090, the report said.
“This reduction implies an increase in the [Medicare part A] cost rate of about 50% by 2090, relative to its current level, solely due to this demographic factor,” the trustees noted.
The projections are done using three sets – low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost – of economic and demographic assumptions. The figures presented here are from the intermediate assumption.
