Two reports from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services show declines in the number of consumers who are activating the health insurance purchased via an Affordable Care Act exchange, a development Trump administration officials say underlines the failure of the ACA.

But researchers from the Commonwealth Fund report that there are other factors – including direct actions take by the president’s team at CMS – that are causing the low effectuation rate.

As of March 15, 10.3 million people paid premiums to activate coverage they purchased on the exchanges out of 12.2 million who enrolled in plans as of the Jan. 31 deadline for 2017, according to a June 12 report from CMS.

Further, some consumers who began paying premiums stopped.

Two key factors are behind the drop off, according to a second CMS report.

According to a voluntary online survey of consumers who left the exchanges between August 2016 and April 2017, 46% who canceled coverage prior to paying premiums cited cost as the main reason, including 20% who cited increased premiums over the previous year and 17% who claimed ineligibility for financial assistance.

Of those who activated their coverage by paying premiums, half (49%) said they stopped because they became eligible and received coverage elsewhere, mostly through an employer or Medicare. About a quarter (27%) cited affordability as the reason why they dropped coverage.

According to the Commonwealth Fund, CMS officials missed a few big reasons why people did not consistently pay for their coverage: Many were reacting to uncertainty around the Trump administration’s ACA repeal and replace efforts. Others were missed because of policy changes undertaken by the administration.

“One of the things that we know affected enrollment this year was the pullback of outreach efforts in the last weekend of the open enrollment period by the Trump administration,” Sara Collins, PhD, vice president of health care access and coverage at the Commonwealth Fund , said in an interview. “It did have an affect on enrollment and might be part of the reason why we are seeing – compared to last year – a lower effectuate enrollment.”

Other administration actions are taking a toll, Dr. Collins said.

There is a “general uncertainty that the administration is generating with respect to the enforcement of the individual mandate and also the uncertainty that is affecting insurers’ commitment to the marketplaces for 2018 [cost sharing reduction payments],” she said, noting both insurers and consumers are affected by this uncertainty.

While acknowledging that the main reason consumers dropped exchange policies was gaining coverage from source, Dr. Collins noted that “we are in such a strange environment, where it’s not clear what Congress is going to do or what the administration is going to do. It probably has confused the public somewhat about what their options are and maybe a concern even if they stay in a plan whether or not they will continue to get their tax credits. There has just been a general sense of uncertainty that has been created by the Trump administration and Congress in terms of the future of marketplace plans.”

gtwachtman@frontlinemedcom.com

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